Rasmussen has (as usual) been the most active pollster in the TX-Gov general race, polling it about once a month. No other national pollster had ventured into the race since a month before the hotly contested (on the GOP side) primary. Even the Rasmussen polls have shown a close race, but Public Policy Polling, in a new poll out today, shows the race between incumbent Governor Rick Perry and former Houston mayor Bill White knotted up at 43-43, with 14% undecided.
Now, there are some concerns I have with the methodology (appears it was an automated telephone poll), but I think digging into the crosstabs makes it even more interesting--after the fold, we'll do that.
- Approval rating differential.
Perry is at 36 approve, 49 disapprove, 15 not sure. (-13 differential)
White is at 37 favorable, 25 unfavorable, 39 not sure. (+12 differential)
Add to that White's high "not sure" numbers, which are sure to decrease as he becomes better known, potentially helping him with voters, and those numbers are very pretty for White.
- Age demographics
The sample for the poll was 5% 18-29, 26% 30-45, 48% 46-65, and 21% 65+. While a midterm election is likely to skew toward older voters (who historically are more Republican), this seems to dramatically understate younger voters.
- Perry Can't Get Beyond His Base
Yes, Texas is a fairly conservative state, and Perry leads among self-identified conservatives 69-14-16, but White has a giant lead among liberals--83-12-6--and is over 60% in moderates--62-23-15. Perry's done a very successful job at getting conservatives rallied (though even almost 60% of conservatives don't want him to run for President, which he seems likely to do if reelected), but at the expense of everything else.
ETA: Burnt Orange Report has more analysis, including that the demographic trend on age is even better than I'd thought--Perry only wins among 65+ voters!
This is a winnable race, and a win here would be a big one, nipping Perry's Presidential ambitions right in the bud. Find out more about Bill White at his website, and let's replace Governor Goodhair with Governor No-Hair.